Final words: presidential elections, Egypt 2012

Tweet

Short notes about the upcoming presidential elections in Egypt.

My views from the last couple of weeks after studying the the actual weight and spread of every "real" candidate and the force supporting each.

First here's the elections experts and the most organized and widespread force in Egypt now; the Muslim Brotherhood who joined the rally in the last moment first by Mr. El-Shater and now by their candidate Dr. Mohamed Morsy, The MBs have the biggest amount of voters which will overcome the weakness of the candidate himself, and that's why you will not find that much voters from outside the 2 million MB members supporting Morsy.

Morsy Chains days ago in cairo, the biggest human chain in Egypt, 51 KM.
MB showing power. (Photo: Sabry Khaled)

In the second place comes El-Nour party, they announced their official support to Dr. Abo El-Fotouh days ago, and i thing they can do a good job in packing him and mobilizing people towards him, about the spread and and organizing they come in the second place right after Ikhwan.. The salafi party took long time to decide their destination in the presidential race after the cancellation of Hazem Abo Ismaiel due to the famous American Mama story.

People watching the 1st Presidential debate in Egyptian history.. Between Mousa and Fotoh.
(Photo: Sabry Khaled)

The difference between Fotoh and Morsy in the nature of voters is that Fotoh has gained a wide sector from the left and right wing specially the people called "El-Baradie sons" after the withdrawal, But Morsy and the MB are losing votes because the last situations and the parliament performance, But it WONT affect them that much.

In my opinion Fotoh and Morsy are the most powerful candidates then comes Amr Mousa and Hamdeen Sabahy.

The last days showed a huge rising in Sabahy supporters just because of his Tv appearance, the sector Sabahy gained are the people who were looking for a leftist candidate who have a real chances not Khaled Aly who have no chance but i respect his move, Other thing about Mr.Sabahy is the weakness of his campaign on the real ground.

Another popular face in the election race is Mousa who have a widespread popularity but always countered by the negatie campaigns about him being an integral part of Mubarak's regime, his chance is quite big and his campaign is well organized on the ground.

Mr.Salem El-Awa have no real chance in my opinion according to his popularity between Egyptians, Maybe the negative campaigns against him are more powerful than his campaign, also he have no well organized forces behind him like Fotoh and Morsy who are also Islamist candidates.

Finally Ahmed Shafik who's the loyal servant to Mubarak, his regime and SCAF.. his existence in such conditions is suspicious for me specially after they made him pass the political segregation law.. but in real world maybe he has chances!

Finally we have to wait and see...

Game On or Off?!

Tweet

(Photo: Internet)

Inside a political Organization like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt you can find the man in charge who's usually the nice face for the media like Mohammed Badie who is the eighth General Guide (chairman) of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. , but always you will find the Rigid, tough and octopus-like man who control almost everything but from behind the closed doors like Mr.Khairat El-Shater who is an Egyptian engineer, businessman and Islamist political activist. And now He is the OFFICIAL Muslim Brotherhood's candidate for the Egyptian presidential election in 2012, From inside the the MB it's known that Khairat El-Shater is the most powerful man inside the 83 years old group, Otherwise he won't be the first MB candidate for presidency ever, which is historical!

Actually i don't understand the shock of some people specially internet activists from this announcement claiming that El-Shater himself stated before that the MB have NO any intentions for entering the presidential race earlier this year.. Anyway The idea that MB "promised" it would not run candidates not valid criticism, except internally -which is questionable because i don't trust Ikhwan Youth-. Blame those who believed them.

So this is the real start of the up coming game which appeared to the surface week ago, Nomination of El-Shater now is just the goal of the opposing statements between the MB and the SCAF which will make the MB introduce their candidate as the savior.

Despite these facts the situation in Egypt is not clear yet, specially in the presence of someone like Amr Moussa who will give SCAF the safe exit they want and the constitutional immunity for sure, and till now i can't see that Ikhwan is giving SCAF these features despite how they're acting the last months when they break up with the revolutionary side of Egypt.

So El-Shater showed up again on the Egyptian Political scene  after the revolution after he got amnesty by SCAF to get out of the prison, And directly after his release he started his project about the MB development in order to make the group stronger.

Of course the guy is amazing but after all he is amazing on the MB standards, and be sure when you hear a shocking news from the MB that he is behind that or at least he's a role in it, and it was clear specially after expelling Dr.Abo El-Fotoh from the MB when he announced about his intentions of running for presidency.

MB is not just a political reformist group at the age of 83 years old, It's developed over years to become a closed human society by the all means of the word, So a Father figure like El-Shater is not just a leader who may be left for a political dissenting opinion, for the most of Ikhwan youth it's much more deeper than that.

Talking about the gab between the MB leaders and the youth as it's something should be used against the MB is just ridiculous and it was very obvious just after few minutes of the announcement when many MB youth defected from Dr.Abo El-Fotoh campaign to El-Shater's campaign and this is because of the opacity of the guy.

A man like El-Shater is a man with a project who will do whatever it takes to make his dream real, specially after years of oppression and prison, and the project is obvious now.. MB take EVERYTHING.

How will Egyptian leftists deal with this news?

Till this moment i have no idea.. but we have to accept the fact that we have nothing to do except organizing the people not mobilizing them against the president they were waiting for since 11th of February 2011, most of Egyptians think that the Solution is the New president who will make their lives better which is not right of course.. because running the economy with the same minds "Pockets" will never change the file citizen financial status.

Do you think that it's a smart move? The announcement?

Will they break the rule saying that "An underground group like MB cannot live in real democratic atmosphere."?

Consider that they already having almost everything.. Constitution, Parliament... 

New Show: The battle of the Beards and Tanks.

Tweet

I'll leave the long introductions a side now because the issue is very obvious now, actually i may be the last one who started to talk about it or state an opinion which i don't have to be honest, So i'll tell you nothing but a new theory of my theories. **

As it appear to the public the underlying statement clashes between the ruling military and the Muslim Brotherhood from which Egyptian online activists started their jokes which really broke the silence and boredom of the current days in the Egyptian "Blogsphere", But all end to the same conclusion which is that they will leave MB alone to face the SCAF as a way of revenge from them as they did sold the youth many times to the regime.

Ok, enough comics!

Most of the traditional theories about how the ruling regimes work are based on the fact of if two Capital regimes faced each other none of them will lose anything but the confused people between them will be slaughtered if there is no real representative leadership for them to organize their struggle for better world, So this is simply what happened in many opinions in 1954 when the military ruling council suppressed the MBs as they asked for a share in the authority.

I can agree that the players have the same names now like they were in 1954 but there are many differences in the structure of both!

You cannot compare the Muslim Brotherhood now and 60 years ago, because Only the blind who will say that they didn't develop themselves, studied the game well and now they did get some gains from a revolution they refused to support from the beginning.. but add to this their hunger to power which blinded them and dragged them away from the people's demands to gain some demands for their minority in comparison to the masses may hit the streets looking for their share sooner or later.

What you can Compare is the state of the military regimes in 1954 and now and anyone can see that they are the same but with different names but the tools still the same: Tanks, Media, "Fake Good Intentions", etc..  

We should learn from History but we should take these changes in consideration otherwise the whole struggle will go in vain.

Here is the way i think it will go:

-The famous 1954 Scenario will not repeat itself except in one case which is the deep stupidity from the MB side.

-I believe that the the whole issue is fake blackmailing between them both in order to sweep our sights from something going on or will happen in the back scenes.

But what if the MB will have a real clash with SCAF?

This question will be answered by days, but the sure thing is none of their loses both will be compared to the people's loss in case of the Leftist Groups didn't gain the people to their side to protect their struggle.

What if the MB didn't have the people's support facing the SCAF?

What if the MB embarrassed the SCAF with the people's support?

We can state millions of "What if" questions.. but i really deeply believe that it doesn't matter!

I hope you got it.. Right.

Here's one of the most descriptive images of the relation between SCAF and MB now by an Egyptian facebookers:

New translation: [En - Ar] Greek activists speak out: ‘We want workers’ power’ - نشطاء يونانيون يصرحون: نريد سلطة العمال

Tweet

The Original article by Patric Ward  written for SocialistWorkerOnline A revolutionary Anti-capitalist paper in Britain.

Original article: Greek activists speak out: ‘We want workers’ power’

Arabic translation: نشطاء يونانيون يصرحون: نريد سلطة العمالنشطاء يونانيون يصرحون: نريد سلطة العمال 

Translated for: Socialist studies center - Egypt 

My comment:

Before translating this piece i didn't have that much information about the state in Greece except what is going on on the main stream corrupt media and to be honest i was surprised by the labor movement in Greece and the great effort by the socialist and leftist organizations there.. what is extremely fascinating is the grow up of the workers awareness over many experiences and years..

It's a very good piece specially when you search in the background of all this.
All of you have witnessed the clashes and the news of the general strikes in Greece but after reading the article above, you will know how they reached this stage of struggle.
For years Greek left wing was deeply embedded in the roots of the labor unions and the normal working class and they make the normal people now have the ability to organize themselves in labor unions which has a great power to influence the government and to lead the anger of the huge crowds hitting the streets.
So when you look deep inside the Greek labor community you will find how they made this all.
For a moment of time i started to compare the status in Greece and Egypt when it comes to the labor movement!
to be honest i don't see the labor movement in Egypt weak as many of the Revolutionary activists see it because if you see the amount of oppression  they were affected by the Old regime which still in it's position you will know that it's not that easy to have this proletarian revolution in a matter of minutes!
But it still an option and believe me it's easy if the way we deal with the huge working class we have here in Egypt changed just a little bit.
You will notice in that article when some labor unionists keep mentioning the "organization from below" and this is the secret word for this great Greek working class uprising and it's the first step in the Domino Effect..


Power to the Workers!

Good intentions that could kill the revolution.

Tweet

There is a great difference between being a revolutionary and being a reformist, but it's not a sin to be a reformist because everyone work for a better world according to his visions and convictions, but this may work when there is lack of the revolutionary momentum in the streets asking for a radical and immediate change of certain situation, but if this radical momentum existed so the reformatory efforts at this particular time will be wrong and may be considered as a sort of treason to the masses in the streets.

What i am talking about here is the latest reformist initiatives by many activists supposed to lead the revolution to the next step of success or at least to show the people the way to their victory not to kill the radical change in them by these Reformatory actions which proved their failure even before they start! like Masrena and the campaign preceded it which was "Buy the Egyptian".

The second one was a pathetic attempt from a capital regime to raise the economy and save the corrupt state from breakdown.

The first one aims to build a bridge between the revolutionaries and the normal people in an attempt to gain them but in the fact the timing of it proved that they want to withdraw the legitimacy from the rebels in the streets like what happened during the November uprising and Mohamed Mahmoud st. clashes when Some reformists called for the parliamentary elections and told the people that it is the only solution is a SCAF made parliament, not that only but the ridiculous was that they raised slogans saying "we will vote and return to the square!".

Another comment on "Masrena" campaign is the end result of their actions which will result in creating a generation of good looking politicians to withdraw the legitimacy from the poor and hard working rebels demanding the radical immediate change.
Here's a question  i need an answer to it:

What will "Masrena" do and the difference between them and the brilliant Tweetshare3 campaign?
In my opinion the second one is enough and more effective as they achieved a lot and their goal is to bring the people down to the streets when the square needs them through building real bridges with the people based on their demands not the organizer's demand!
"Masrena doesn't offer anything new, and refused to cooperate with us" said Dr.Ahmed Gamaleldin, one of Tweetshare3 activists.

Finally what i want to say is that we didn't revolted to accept the half-solutions, but these actions is reducing the roof of the people's demands and dreams, so Stop Them to keep our revolution alive.

المحظورة الجديدة

Tweet

لسنين طويلة في ظل حكم الطاغية مبارك كان قمع الجماعة الاسلامية على أشده وكان اقوى فصائل هذه الجماعات في المجتمع المدني هي جماعة الاخوان المسلمين أو الجماعة المحظورة كما كان يحلو للنظام و كلابه من الاعلاميين متملقي السلطة تسميتهم. أما الآن فقد اختلف الوضع تماما فاصبح لجماعة الاخوان المسلمين حزب سياسي يسعى لأغلبية في البرلمان وتمارس نشاطاتهم في العيان بدون ادنى مضايقة أو تدخل من السلطة الحاكمه ليس هذا فقط !واصبح هناك جريدة توزع بانتشار بين الناس للحزب الذي يكتب فوق اسمه "حزب الحرية والعدالة .. أسسه الاخوان المسلمون لجميع المصريين" 

لا يخفى الا على الاعمى أو المتعامي التعاون الواضح بين المجلس العسكري الحكم بامر السلاح والطاغية والاخوان المسلمون حيث ناضل الاخوان لسنين طويلة للوصول للسلطة عن طريق خلق قاعدة جماهيرية من الفقراء والميالين إلى العباءة الدينية ولكن ماذا قدم الاخوان للفقراء ؟ وهل يرى الإخوان بديلا عن الإحسان لتحسين احوال الفقراء من هذه الأمة ؟

هل هو تعاون بين الاخوان من جهة المجلس الحاكم من جهة اخرى ؟ ام كما يقول البعض "هدنة" نتيجة عداوة قديمة ؟ مقابل مكتسبات للطرفين ؟

أما اليوم وبعد رفع الحظر عن المحظورة فكان من الملزم حظر محظورة اخرى !

في السابق كان يتم محاربة الاخوان لسعيهم إلى السلطة سواء بإسم محاربة الفساد أو بأي مسمى يستتر تحته هدف السلطة ويأتي ذلك من كونهم اكبر فصيل سياسي منظم على الأرض ولذلك تم استخدامهم من قبل المجلس الأعلى للقتل للتأثير على جموع الناس الثائرة في الميادين وقيادة الثورة المضادة بشرط تقسيم السلطة بينهم.

ولكن هناك من رأى ذلك وابى !

يعلم المجلس علم اليقين ان التيار اليساري في مصر يشتد عوده بعد الثورة ويمر بمرحلة من النضوج والتوسع بين الشباب وبداية حركة عمالية واسعة تضرب كل فترة بإضرابات تزلزل النظام وتهز أركانه ولذلك فوجب على النظام وئد هذه الحركات الهادفة لاسقاطه ولكنها ابت مرة اخرى.

لماذا يحارب النظام "الاشتراكيين الثوريين" ؟

لا يسعون إلى سلطة .. لا يقدمون خدمة إلى الناس الا ثورة !

تبنى قاعدتهم على اساس مصلحة الناس وتقرير مصير الشعب الكادح للشعب الكادح.

الفصيل الوحيد الذي لا يقبل أنصاف الحلول

الفصيل الوحيد الذي لم يقبل المتاجرة بدماء الشهداء في مسرحية الانتخابات الهزلية

نعم يمثل الاشتراكيون خطر على نظام تتداعى أركانه..

لن تفلح هجمات المجلس القذرة على الاشتراكيين الثوريين من خلال اعلامهم واعلام من والاهم.

الاشتركيون الثوريون هم الجماعة المحظورة الجديدة ولكن هناك فرق بين محظورة ومحظورة .. 

كُلّ يَوْمٍ نَزِيلُ سَددًا .. كُلّ يَوْمٍ نََزِيدُ عَدداً | الاشتراكيون الثوريون ...

Egypt is not Tunisia

Tweet

We all remember this, we remember how many times we heard it while we were dreaming of the revolution, we remember how it was a great motive to prove to the whole world that we can!,11 months ago we showed the world how wrong is this when we revolted and forced Mubarak to step down.

Away from the revolutionary romantic feelings the revolution isn't over yet because it's a lifetime experience and process, so the revolution didn't stopped in Egypt or even in Tunisia in order to defeat the counter-revolution which till short time ago the of the same nature, but due to the cultural, economical and political differences between the two countries the scene now is totally different.

It wasn't a surprise for the two nations that the Islamic movements is that strong economically or regulatory.

But in Tunisia the governing controls were much obvious and supported by fairly strong secular groups whether they are liberals or leftists groups so the civil state wasn't negotiable like here in 

Egypt where the extremist Islamic movements "Salafists" are calling for an Islamic Theocratic state in order to influence the people or the great sector of them by the religious campaigns which will guarantee the security of the SCAF from being questioned and keeping all their dark secrets about the regime, so it was obvious that they used the liberal, Islamic, leftist-reformatory forces and the media system dogs to reach their goal.

At the same time Egypt is worried about the identity of the state Tunisia finished the transformation period safely and it's obvious if you noticed the amount of violence in both countries since Mubarak and BinAly stepped down, Tunisia reached to the presidential elections while Egyptians are waiting for the SCAF to decide when and how they will elect the president.

Another very important difference between them is the strength of the leftist groups or parties which in Tunisia forced the Islamic movements to put a line for their dreams!

But in Egypt it's a little different, as the Egyptian leftists are weak in number and support by the people due to the reduced awareness and suppression they were subjected to the years before the revolution, but the good thing is that the Egyptian leftism is gaining much power since the revolution of the 25th of January but still have time in front of them to lead the political scene in Egypt specially after some leftist groups allied the SCAF in their elections which did weakened the movement again but i think it's good to know who is with you and who is not earlier to build a strong movement.

So Egypt is not Tunisia.

Video - Home demonstration in Beirut to support the Syrian Revolution ?

Tweet

Because of suppression, oppression and lack of freedom of speech in Lebanon just like any other Arabic state under these dictatorships, Lebanese people are banned from showing their support to the Syrian revolution, asking for the immediate stoppage of the blood bath their and forcing Bashar to step down.

A group of Lebanese demonstrated at home silently away from the suppressive regime's eyes carrying signs supporting the revolution in Syria.

Video From Farfahinne - socialist from lebanon

The secret agreement - a theory

Tweet

May be what i want to say in the few coming lines will be considered as a conspiracy theory, just a stupid theory, may be it's the truth Or at least an important part of it.

May be the following questions will help.
Why Islamists ?
Why Now ?
Islamic movements before and after the revolution ?
What is the Counter-revolution ? Are they a part of it ?
Can they achieve the goals of the revolution ?
What was the secret agreement ? is it happening ?

At a defining moment of the Egyptian history General Omar Soliman the torture specialist, the former Director of Intelligence, the 1st and the last grantor of Israeli peace in the area and the Egyptian GAS seller appeared at the forefront of the political scene as the first vice president since 30 years and that was the last official and public appearance of Omar Soliman, between the many controversial statements he made during the short critical time as a vice president and against all the expectations he asked the Muslim Brotherhood to join the negotiations while till that date the M.B. was a banned group by law ! " It's better for them to join " said Soliman.

Soliman's history with the islamists specially the M.B. is full of torture, blood, killing and detentions so it was logical for the M.B. to refuse his offer back then at least in public despite that the M.B. didn't hit the streets from the beginning of the revolution but they supported it when they felt that the youth is going to make it.


Away from the battles in the streets and behind the closed doors of the political minds in Egypt something was being arranged and the whole regime was in a big deep trouble, A trouble forced the second row -the real rulers who have interests- of the regime to take the lead or to show up on the surface sacrificing the the head of the regime -Mubarak- after they felt that the whole regime will fall down and never be able to stand up again specially when their interests started to collapse due to the strikes invaded Egypt in a successful attempt to save what could be saved, but won't able to make it alone So they had to make a DEAL !


The SCAF as the Armed wing of the regime which is trying regain it's strength through offering deals with the Popular Opportunistic Bourgeoisie forces as the M.B. to save their interests and to guarantee imposition of control on the roaring crowds back then in the streets and have the same economical views based on the Free market .. Etc. , So here's the deal : M.B. will take over the positions they are good at like education, health and the most important job is to convince the people with how good the new regime is ! through the illusions of the production wheel and the biggest one of the which is that the regime is gone, but the fact is that they became a integral part of it.


Why they choose the M.B. from the beginning ?
First > Simply one of the most trusted opposition movements during the Mubarak era and even before him, but was never for the good of the people depending on them actually, it was for their own interest and the first loyalty was for the Guidance Office and the goals of the group, which from their point of view they see that it have the good for the people. But from mine they are not ! and that's because they are the same as the liberals, capitalists and dictators who still see that the poor people conditions can only be improved by charity ! which is obvious from their way in dealing with the poor people through years of underground social work.
Second > SCAF used the fact of M.B. were the most oppressed people during Mubarak's era despite the Leftist groups were oppressed too but they never have the chance neither to speak nor to work easily under any umbrella as M.B. did in the name of community service while the leftists were offering a revolution not a community service .

Every time i think about the dark side of the revolution many ideas and theories comes to my mind but the most important thought is the fact of that our revolution wasn't a laborers revolution but it was enhanced by them, and they didn't defend their revolution in the proper way, may be this is the problem but the are the only hope !

Labor movement in Egypt was oppressed for the last decades but the progress is massive in the last period despite the war by the SCAF and the allying bourgeoisie forces on them.

After the recent events i think we have to reproduce a new definition of the Counter revolution in Egypt or at least rearrange the elements which are :-
1.SCAF = the leading armed wing
2.M.B. = the Allying popular wing
3.Reformatory forces = many opportunistic parties

just saying.