Final words: presidential elections, Egypt 2012

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Short notes about the upcoming presidential elections in Egypt.

My views from the last couple of weeks after studying the the actual weight and spread of every "real" candidate and the force supporting each.

First here's the elections experts and the most organized and widespread force in Egypt now; the Muslim Brotherhood who joined the rally in the last moment first by Mr. El-Shater and now by their candidate Dr. Mohamed Morsy, The MBs have the biggest amount of voters which will overcome the weakness of the candidate himself, and that's why you will not find that much voters from outside the 2 million MB members supporting Morsy.

Morsy Chains days ago in cairo, the biggest human chain in Egypt, 51 KM.
MB showing power. (Photo: Sabry Khaled)

In the second place comes El-Nour party, they announced their official support to Dr. Abo El-Fotouh days ago, and i thing they can do a good job in packing him and mobilizing people towards him, about the spread and and organizing they come in the second place right after Ikhwan.. The salafi party took long time to decide their destination in the presidential race after the cancellation of Hazem Abo Ismaiel due to the famous American Mama story.

People watching the 1st Presidential debate in Egyptian history.. Between Mousa and Fotoh.
(Photo: Sabry Khaled)

The difference between Fotoh and Morsy in the nature of voters is that Fotoh has gained a wide sector from the left and right wing specially the people called "El-Baradie sons" after the withdrawal, But Morsy and the MB are losing votes because the last situations and the parliament performance, But it WONT affect them that much.

In my opinion Fotoh and Morsy are the most powerful candidates then comes Amr Mousa and Hamdeen Sabahy.

The last days showed a huge rising in Sabahy supporters just because of his Tv appearance, the sector Sabahy gained are the people who were looking for a leftist candidate who have a real chances not Khaled Aly who have no chance but i respect his move, Other thing about Mr.Sabahy is the weakness of his campaign on the real ground.

Another popular face in the election race is Mousa who have a widespread popularity but always countered by the negatie campaigns about him being an integral part of Mubarak's regime, his chance is quite big and his campaign is well organized on the ground.

Mr.Salem El-Awa have no real chance in my opinion according to his popularity between Egyptians, Maybe the negative campaigns against him are more powerful than his campaign, also he have no well organized forces behind him like Fotoh and Morsy who are also Islamist candidates.

Finally Ahmed Shafik who's the loyal servant to Mubarak, his regime and SCAF.. his existence in such conditions is suspicious for me specially after they made him pass the political segregation law.. but in real world maybe he has chances!

Finally we have to wait and see...

Game On or Off?!

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(Photo: Internet)

Inside a political Organization like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt you can find the man in charge who's usually the nice face for the media like Mohammed Badie who is the eighth General Guide (chairman) of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. , but always you will find the Rigid, tough and octopus-like man who control almost everything but from behind the closed doors like Mr.Khairat El-Shater who is an Egyptian engineer, businessman and Islamist political activist. And now He is the OFFICIAL Muslim Brotherhood's candidate for the Egyptian presidential election in 2012, From inside the the MB it's known that Khairat El-Shater is the most powerful man inside the 83 years old group, Otherwise he won't be the first MB candidate for presidency ever, which is historical!

Actually i don't understand the shock of some people specially internet activists from this announcement claiming that El-Shater himself stated before that the MB have NO any intentions for entering the presidential race earlier this year.. Anyway The idea that MB "promised" it would not run candidates not valid criticism, except internally -which is questionable because i don't trust Ikhwan Youth-. Blame those who believed them.

So this is the real start of the up coming game which appeared to the surface week ago, Nomination of El-Shater now is just the goal of the opposing statements between the MB and the SCAF which will make the MB introduce their candidate as the savior.

Despite these facts the situation in Egypt is not clear yet, specially in the presence of someone like Amr Moussa who will give SCAF the safe exit they want and the constitutional immunity for sure, and till now i can't see that Ikhwan is giving SCAF these features despite how they're acting the last months when they break up with the revolutionary side of Egypt.

So El-Shater showed up again on the Egyptian Political scene  after the revolution after he got amnesty by SCAF to get out of the prison, And directly after his release he started his project about the MB development in order to make the group stronger.

Of course the guy is amazing but after all he is amazing on the MB standards, and be sure when you hear a shocking news from the MB that he is behind that or at least he's a role in it, and it was clear specially after expelling Dr.Abo El-Fotoh from the MB when he announced about his intentions of running for presidency.

MB is not just a political reformist group at the age of 83 years old, It's developed over years to become a closed human society by the all means of the word, So a Father figure like El-Shater is not just a leader who may be left for a political dissenting opinion, for the most of Ikhwan youth it's much more deeper than that.

Talking about the gab between the MB leaders and the youth as it's something should be used against the MB is just ridiculous and it was very obvious just after few minutes of the announcement when many MB youth defected from Dr.Abo El-Fotoh campaign to El-Shater's campaign and this is because of the opacity of the guy.

A man like El-Shater is a man with a project who will do whatever it takes to make his dream real, specially after years of oppression and prison, and the project is obvious now.. MB take EVERYTHING.

How will Egyptian leftists deal with this news?

Till this moment i have no idea.. but we have to accept the fact that we have nothing to do except organizing the people not mobilizing them against the president they were waiting for since 11th of February 2011, most of Egyptians think that the Solution is the New president who will make their lives better which is not right of course.. because running the economy with the same minds "Pockets" will never change the file citizen financial status.

Do you think that it's a smart move? The announcement?

Will they break the rule saying that "An underground group like MB cannot live in real democratic atmosphere."?

Consider that they already having almost everything.. Constitution, Parliament...