Saturday, May 12, 2012

Final words: presidential elections, Egypt 2012

Short notes about the upcoming presidential elections in Egypt.
My views from the last couple of weeks after studying the the actual weight and spread of every "real" candidate and the force supporting each.

First here's the elections experts and the most organized and widespread force in Egypt now; the Muslim Brotherhood who joined the rally in the last moment first by Mr. El-Shater and now by their candidate Dr. Mohamed Morsy, The MBs have the biggest amount of voters which will overcome the weakness of the candidate himself, and that's why you will not find that much voters from outside the 2 million MB members supporting Morsy.

Morsy Chanis
Morsy Chains days ago in cairo, the biggest human chain in Egypt, 51 KM.
MB showing power. (Photo: Sabry Khaled)

In the second place comes El-Nour party, they announced their official support to Dr. Abo El-Fotouh days ago, and i thing they can do a good job in packing him and mobilizing people towards him, about the spread and and organizing they come in the second place right after Ikhwan.. The salafi party took long time to decide their destination in the presidential race after the cancellation of Hazem Abo Ismaiel due to the famous American Mama story.

People watching the 1st Presidential debate in Egyptian history
People watching the 1st Presidential debate in Egyptian history.. Between Mousa and Fotoh.
(Photo: Sabry Khaled)

The difference between Fotoh and Morsy in the nature of voters is that Fotoh has gained a wide sector from the left and right wing specially the people called "El-Baradie sons" after the withdrawal, But Morsy and the MB are losing votes because the last situations and the parliament performance, But it WONT affect them that much.

In my opinion Fotoh and Morsy are the most powerful candidates then comes Amr Mousa and Hamdeen Sabahy.

The last days showed a huge rising in Sabahy supporters just because of his Tv appearance, the sector Sabahy gained are the people who were looking for a leftist candidate who have a real chances not Khaled Aly who have no chance but i respect his move, Other thing about Mr.Sabahy is the weakness of his campaign on the real ground.

Another popular face in the election race is Mousa who have a widespread popularity but always countered by the negatie campaigns about him being an integral part of Mubarak's regime, his chance is quite big and his campaign is well organized on the ground.

Mr.Salem El-Awa have no real chance in my opinion according to his popularity between Egyptians, Maybe the negative campaigns against him are more powerful than his campaign, also he have no well organized forces behind him like Fotoh and Morsy who are also Islamist candidates.

Finally Ahmed Shafik who's the loyal servant to Mubarak, his regime and SCAF.. his existence in such conditions is suspicious for me specially after they made him pass the political segregation law.. but in real world maybe he has chances!

Finally we have to wait and see...

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